How's my Luck now?

Reflections, views and descriptions during my stay at IIM Lucknow from July 2004 to March 2006

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Location: India

Thursday, February 10, 2005

Fibonacci series and stock price movements

My friend Samrat has written a very interesting article on how the Fibonacci series (or the Golden Ratio - 1.618) is related to individual stock price and stock market movements. He indicates three effects:

1. Fibonacci retracements: wherein stock prices seek a floor (support) price and a ceiling (resistance) price which seem to be guided by the two values that ratios of adjacent terms-to-their sum converge to - 0.382 and 0.618, after sharp price movements.

2. Fibonacci fans: wherein lines drawn from the lowest stock price for a particular time period at slopes which are 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% of the slope of the line joining the lowest point with the topmost point in the range, actually pass through many support and resistance levels in that time period.

3. Fibonacci time line: wherein vertical lines drawn at Fibonacci intervals (1 unit, 2 units, 5 units, etc.) on a line graph of a market index cut that graph at points where major market-trend changes occur (in the positive or negative direction).

At first I was amazed at how so man-made a phenomenon as the stock market could show such affinity towards the Golden Ratio. But then, as Samrat told me, the stock market is quite a chaotic system, and so chaos theory findings can apply to it, which can explain why the Ratio figures so prominently there. There are more such effects as well.

61 Comments:

Blogger ASHOK VAISHNAV said...

Indeed a very interesting piece of information.
I am not sure what it means for technical analysts!
It would also noteworthy at this juncture to state that Indian stock markets do not seem to have become CLASSICAL FREE markets – what still no convincing logic able to explain why BSE or NIFTY able to move in sync with other global indices, particularly when the market drivers – FIIs – are themselves MORE FREE MARKET ORIENTED then the erstwhile scenario when BIG DADDYs – the then UTI or Fis – were more prone to the nudges of the Govt.
In any case the quality and influence of (sound or otherwise) intuition in any market can never be underestimated, in comparison to KNOWLEDGE.

8:32 AM  
Blogger Tadatmya Vaishnav said...

Absolutely correct! Such statements from Western commentators are common that the Indian stockmarkets are not yet as mature as the Western markets. They are too volatile and respond to the wildest of rumours. Perhaps that makes them more chaotic :). The daily reasons cited for the rise and fall of Sensex are basically crap, I think. Everybody tries to hide their loss to explain by citing obscure reasons.
A book that I half-read recently - 'The Lexus and the Olive Tree' by Thomas Friedman (on globalization) - emphasised that the main impact of FII investments has been to make the markets in a country move closer to being free or efficient markets. If the markets don't respond or the govt. imposes restrictions, the FIIs simply leave without mercy.

10:11 AM  
Blogger Samrat said...

the Fibonacci ratios do have amazing mathematical properties, and are prevalant in nature.
though there is no exact explanation of stock market movements, only surmising. these techniques are just rough indicators and may be completely off the mark sometimes,unlike the hot "confirm che" tips of the portly Gujarati sub-sub-sub-sub broker.

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