How's my Luck now?

Reflections, views and descriptions during my stay at IIM Lucknow from July 2004 to March 2006

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Location: India

Friday, November 04, 2005

Planning under uncertainty

Faced with an uncertain environment, should one plan less or more? We have encountered this question a few times under different courses here. Even in very uncertain environments, planning by scenario-building helps build expectations, more than anything else. I built two scenarios for my Term IV GPA, a best-case scenario and a worst-case scenario, faced with the uncertainty of the way grades are allotted, as well as the uncertainty arising from my middling, ambiguous position in most subjects. The best-case scenario predicted a TG of 7.4 and the worst-case one, 6.33. It turns out that, with minor internal adjustments, my TG has actually come out at exactly 7.4. Maybe I'll become a good strategic planner :) (of course, I didn't have to make any personal resource allocations based on the scenarios).

2 Comments:

Blogger ASHOK VAISHNAV said...

Planning is all about forecasting all factors, and thier potential pattern of behaviors, which are likely to influence desired goals / results; identifying SWOT of our own present sphere of influence/ control such that either we have better control on drivers - and hence our own sphere of control- or anticipate behavior of drivers to enable widen our spehere of control - may be with less degre of control.
This is true under any levels of (un)certainty of the future.
In any case, there is no absolute measure of certainty of results. Hence, vital need for feedback / review mechanism to keep on midstream corrections of the path.
Ones who choose untrodden path(s) are , inherently, more prone to higher levels of risks.If rewards outweigh risks, the life becomes more successful (atleast outwardly); otherwise one may still be more happy (intrinsically), because one could live the way his inner self desired one to live.

7:53 PM  
Blogger Samrat said...

Well said Sir,
The portfolio selection paradigm can also be used.
It is the trade off between risk and return. If one wants more returns then he will have to take more risks.
One can set one's range.

6:17 AM  

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